CBS Sports analyst Brad Nessler lives in the Atlanta area and had the opportunity to watch Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola play in Buford, Georgia.

“He’s done everything right there in one of the best high school football programs in the country,” Nessler told Sporting News. “I live right down the street. He’s exactly what everyone says he is.”

Now combine Raiola — the ultimate five-star recruit from Nebraska — with the state of the program, and CBS Sports analyst Rick Neuheisel puts it in perspective that would make anyone who grew up in the 1990s do a double take.

“The fact that Nebraska hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2016 leaves me speechless with how much this program is revered by its fans,” Neuheisel said. “I expect that era is coming to an end.”

It’s true. Nebraska has a 28-52 record over the past seven seasons. A Cleveland.com media poll has the Huskers ranked eighth in the newly formed 18-team Big Ten. However, second-year coach Matt Rhule is in the second year of one of his treacherous program overhauls, and Raiola could be the X-factor to build a true contender in Lincoln.

“To get back to 5-7, that’s not going to be good enough,” Rhule said July 24 at Big Ten Media Days. “What does that mean? I really don’t see it that way, but I’ll tell you, I have confidence in this team. I expect us to be a good team.”

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What to expect from Matt Rhule in year two

Rhule has a knack for giving precise numbers. At Big Ten Media Day, he told reporters that Nebraska has “37 different defenses.” When asked about Oregon, he mentioned the 38-20 score that beat Penn State when he played in the 1995 Rose Bowl. He then proceeded to rattle off Oregon’s record the last two years — 10-3 and 12-2.

Nebraska hasn’t had a 10-win season since 2012, and the two main culprits remain the same. The Huskers are 2-17, one-point games since 2021 – and had a -17 turnover ratio last season.

“We lost the ball 31 times,” Rhule said. “We only lost it 14 times. The responsibility is on both sides, but if we had lost the ball 31 times, our season would have been different.”

Rhule elaborated on this trend. It wasn’t just bad luck. He pointed to a non-contact fumble against Iowa. What’s the solution? Rhule consulted with Ron Brown, a longtime Nebraska assistant who is the director of player support and outreach. Brown’s response: “We don’t coach it hard enough.”

“We try to coach it harder,” Rhule said. “At some point, when you have good players, it’s, ‘Hey, if you lose the ball, you don’t play, and on defense, if you take the ball away, you play.’ I think both of those things help us. … We’re going to lose the ball a couple of times. We’re not going to be perfect, but we’re going to get better.”

Rhule also analyzed another cause of these turnovers: passing efficiency. The Huskers ranked 13th in the Big Ten in passing efficiency last season, one spot ahead of Iowa. Nebraska’s quarterbacks combined for 10 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a passer rating of 105.

Is Dylan Raiola the answer?

Raiola threw for 2,819 yards, 34 touchdowns and one interception at Buford last season. He came to fall camp as a Patrick Mahomes lookalike, and that has only added to the hype surrounding Raiola, whose father, Dominic, played at Nebraska from 1997-2000 and whose uncle, Donovan, is the offensive line coach.

According to 247Sports.com, there have been 31 five-star quarterbacks since 2015. Raiola is Nebraska’s first five-star QB, and his legacy is somewhere between North Carolina’s Drake Maye (2021) and Texas’ Arch Manning (2023) in terms of hype. The result is high expectations – and for Raiola, that will happen on an accelerated timeline. Will he be able to handle it?

“First of all, most quarterbacks today only play football,” Neuheisel said. “They went to quarterback school — you could say the School of Rock — for a long time during their high school career. Whether that’s in the summer or at the Elite 11 and the camps they go to or with a quarterback guru training them, they’re much more advanced than they were 20 years ago.”

Rhule thanks Raiola for his hard work since arriving on campus. Junior Heinrich Haarberg is his replacement.

“Dylan has done a great job of coming in and being one of the guys,” Rhule said. “When I come in at 4 p.m. for my little old man workout, he’s usually there doing something special. When I go there early in the morning, he’s usually there throwing. … I think the thing about Dylan is he spends a lot of time learning and understanding football, because as a freshman, it’s hard to process that.”

Rhule recalled a conversation with legendary coach Tom Osborne, who said that sometimes a first-year quarterback can look great against the same defense in fall training camp before running into trouble in Week 2. That will be part of the development with Raiola.

Rhule again cites a specific example from his time with the New York Giants on September 16, 2012. Eli Manning threw three interceptions in the first half against Tampa Bay. There was no question of substituting Manning. He recovered and led New York to a 41-34 victory.

“We didn’t take him out, we played him through,” Rhule said. “When I name the starter, I want him to play through.”

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What is a reasonable expectation for Nebraska?

Nessler believes the coach-quarterback relationship between Rhule and Raiola will be key for Nebraska in 2024.

“He’s built that up slowly,” Nessler said. “Not slowly, but over a couple of years he’s made the defense stronger. Their offense is going to be what the quarterback is.”

The turnover differential and close losses haven’t all been the quarterback’s fault, but an answer at that position would help a Nebraska roster that should be more talented on both sides of the ball. The Huskers will first play UTEP before the first playoff game in the old rivalry with Colorado and coach Deion Sanders. The Buffaloes beat the Huskers 36-14 on September 9, 2023.

“I expect us to be good,” Rhule said. “I expect us to win. I expect us to be a contender in the conference.”

Based on his recent college football stops, Rhule is ahead of schedule. Temple improved from 2-10 in 2013 to 6-6 in 2014. Baylor improved from 1-11 in 2017 to 7-6 in 2018. Both programs reached double-digit wins in their third year. Yet Rhule isn’t thinking in those numbers, even if a potential breakout season from Raiola is part of the equation.

“I’m not going to say 10-2 is good,” Rhule said. “If I say 10-2 or 8-4 is good, I’m sitting here telling you we’re going to lose four games. I want us to go out and try to win every game. That seems right to me.”

“I don’t care what people say about what I’m doing right now. But what matters to me a lot in 10 years is that I did most things right or that I did my best,” Rhule said.