It’s easy for me to sit here and point out that players are overrated and overdrafted after we went through a season where Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams were top-six running backs, but that’s exactly what I’m here to do. And I’m only here so I don’t get fined.

What I’m saying is, if you like a guy and believe in him, go for him. I’m here to tell you why you’re wrong and why it’s a bad decision, but by all means go for your guy. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, after all, and maybe your guy will end up being the next Kyren Williams.

Either way, here are six running backs that I think are overrated in fantasy football drafts. Avoid these overrated running backs.

Overrated Running Backs You Should Avoid

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAX) | Half-PPR ADP: RB8, 18 overall

The Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in 2023 with the vision of a thunder-and-lightning duo between him and Travis Etienne. As we all know, Bigsby flopped in his rookie season, but coach Doug Pederson and the Jaguars are steadfast in their hopes of increasing Bigsby’s role and reducing Etienne’s usage. That message remained consistent throughout the offseason and training camp.

#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on Tank Bigsby:

“I think Tank has a bigger role this year going into year two. That’s something we’ve looked at. We definitely know we need to take a little bit of pressure off of Travis (Etienne) and keep him healthy for a full season… I think Tank is… pic.twitter.com/7FTsctuKZo

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 29, 2024

Etienne finished last season as the RB3 in the half-PPR, which makes his average draft position (ADP) of RB8 seem tolerable at first glance. Take a bigger bite, however, and you’ll see that his success was largely based on his share of the pie, thanks to Bigsby’s inability to eat. Etienne acquired nearly 76% of the team’s running back opportunities, the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. He recorded the fourth-most runs and seventh-most targets at the position, but finished 55th in actual yards per run at 3.6. He was 29th in yards created per touch at 3.32, 34th in yards per touch at 4.6, and just 25th in fantasy points per opportunity.

One could argue that those numbers will increase with a lighter workload resulting in fresher legs, but then we’re taking away the volume he relied on last season. One could argue that Bigsby isn’t good enough to take on more work, but that’s not the bet to make at RB8. If Bigsby can’t do it, the Jags will likely find someone who can.

I expect the focus this season to be on the development of Trevor Lawrence, especially with the additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, who will play alongside Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Suddenly there are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and it seems that a tighter workload with increased efficiency would be best for Etienne. With more volume, efficiency goes down. His situation and recent efficiency are both quite similar to Joe Mixon, who is drafted as RB15/43 overall. Etienne’s price tag of RB8/18 overall seems closer to his ceiling than his most likely outcome.

Half-PPR ADP: RB13, 34 overall

Admittedly, I am what the youth would call a “hater” when it comes to Rachaad White. But there is a good reason for that, and that is that he is not a very good running back in the NFL. Of course, that is coming from the guy who wears sweatpants, eats a candy bar, and cools his back after sitting in the office all day, but bear with me. White finished last season with a Pro Football Focus (PFF) rushing grade of 66.7, which ranked him 74th among running backs, while his breakaway run rate of 13.8% ranked 76th.

His 4.6 yards per touch was the 33rd-best, and his 3.5 true yards per carry put him 57th. But wait, there’s more. His expected points were astonishingly low at -44, good for 145th-best in the league. On the other hand, White faced a weak front 67.3% of the time, the highest rate in the league, which can be attributed to the defense begging the Bucs to give him the ball. White finished the season with the second-most runs, fourth-most pass catches, and fourth-highest weighted chances. In other words, White was completely reliant on the crowd.

He’s a solid pass catcher, you have to give him that, but a lot of the running backs are the result of his mere presence, not his capture. We know that quantity matters at the running back position, so I can understand the optimism from that perspective, but White was also extremely inefficient in 2022 and has shown no signs of being a capable NFL rusher. At some point, the Bucs will want to see what literally anyone else can do with those touches. With Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker, the reserves battled a spate of injuries last season and were unable to pressure White. Fourth-round draft pick Bucky Irving could be the one to change that after an efficient career at Oregon.

It’s entirely possible that White will take all the volume and bulldoze his way to another RB1 finish and make me look like an idiot, but there are plenty of running backs that would be later that I would prefer. Joe Mixon is often criticized for his inefficiency, but he’s in a similar situation, in a better offense, and has proven far more, but he’s nine picks later. One thing is for sure, you won’t catch me relying on Rachaad White in December with a candy bar, sweatpants, and ice pack; there’s no doubt about that.

David Montgomery (RB – DET) | Half-PPR ADP: RB21, 61 overall

To be fair, RB21 seems reasonable for David Montgomery, and I’ve seen him ranked much higher in some places. Yahoo even has him at RB16. There’s also a lack of running backs, let’s call them “talent” at this point in the draft, but I think some of them have more potential. There are also wide receivers and tight ends in that area that I like much better.

The biggest problem with Montgomery is the drop, and while that’s somewhat built into his price, there’s a good chance the drop hits harder than many expect. The Lions scored 3.4 touchdowns per game last season, an incredibly strong mark after scoring 3.1 in 2022. History suggests the touchdown total will drop this season, not because the Lions aren’t a good offensive team, but because even the best offenses drop off from those numbers.

Jamaal Williams scored 17 touchdowns in 2022 and we didn’t expect Montgomery to reach that total, but he scored 13 touchdowns himself in 2023. With the total touchdown output declining, we can expect Montgomery’s to decline as well. Where things get interesting is Jahmyr Gibbs, who has an overall ADP of 12 (RB6). That doesn’t seem unreasonable if the Lions perform the same on offense as they did a year ago.

But if you look a little closer, you can see that the goal line split in the first half of the season when the two running backs were on the field together was 8-1 in favor of Montgomery. But by Week 10, the split was 11-10 in favor of Montgomery. The two running backs offer different skill sets, and the Lions will want to utilize them both. But if Gibbs is who we think he is, shouldn’t the Lions utilize him to his full potential? It seems like they were leaning toward that late last season.

If we assume the Lions’ total touchdowns go down, Montgomery’s goal line percentage goes down, and Gibbs becomes an elite running back, do we still believe Montgomery will be an RB2 with very little passing? Even if he is an RB2, his potential seems much lower than those drafted around him.

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