Does anyone in the AFC West have a chance to dethrone Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Are the Buffalo Bills still the kings of the AFC East? In less than three weeks, we’ll get the first answers.
But in the meantime, with the rosters almost finalized, it’s time for us to fire up my NFL projection model to give us a look at the upcoming NFL season. Today, we’ll look at the projected win totals of every team in the AFC to see what we can expect from this conference in the 2024 season. On Tuesday, we’ll look at the NFC.
As a reminder, my NFL projection model takes game data and creates an offensive and defensive projection for each team. From there, I simulate every game that season – and repeat this process 100,000 times – to see how many games a team is likely to win, how often they’ll make the playoffs or win their division, and even win the Super Bowl. But today we’re just focusing on total wins.
NFL Projection Model: AFC
AFC East
The Bills have won the AFC East title four times in a row, but after an offseason that featured many roster moves – including the trade of wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans – there are doubts about Buffalo’s chances of winning a fifth consecutive title.
Well, not according to my model.
Sure, it’s closer than in years past, but the Bills are still the team to beat in the East. Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL outside of Mahomes, and the other two division contenders still have questions.
Miami just signed Tua Tagovailoa to a mega-extension, but the Dolphins’ offense hasn’t been able to break through against strong competition. The New York Jets want to get a full season out of a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but he’s already in his 40s and is coming off a torn Achilles, so what are realistic expectations? Yes, the defense should be top-notch, but I still have concerns about the offense. And for what it’s worth, the Indianapolis Colts have won as many AFC East titles as the Jets since 1999, despite playing in the AFC South since 2002. Analyzing this division simply boils down to whether you think the Jets can get more out of Rodgers or whether the Dolphins can get more out of Tagovailoa to beat the Bills. My model would bet more on Allen upgrading the Buffalos’ offense as they defend the throne.
AFC North
You won’t find a division battle as close at the top as the AFC North. In my model, the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are separated by just 0.03 wins, which favors the Bengals.
While the model recognizes that Baltimore has the better roster, the Ravens must have a schedule that meets the demands of a first-place team, while the Bengals benefit from a fourth-place schedule.
The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are at the bottom of the division, as my model predicts both teams will regress from last year’s success. Both still have questions at the quarterback position and rely on a good defense. That’s not a good strategy year to year. At some point, the offense has to show it can consistently make the playoffs and be successful in the postseason. Taking it a step further, the Browns went 6-2 in one-point games last year, while the Steelers went 9-2. It’s safe to say Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s 17-year streak of .500-or-better records is in jeopardy.
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AFC South
This might be the most exciting division in the AFC this season, with each team led by young, exciting quarterbacks with potential.
CJ Stroud led the Houston Texans to the division title last year. Although he had a historic rookie season, it’s hard to say if he’ll take a leap forward in year two since he was so good last year. Consider that the Texans are going from a fourth-place schedule to a first-place schedule. That’s going to make life more difficult.
The Jacksonville Jaguars know they have something special in Trevor Lawrence, but they haven’t been able to put it all together. Still, I think they are easily the second best team in the division, albeit with a wide range of results.
Next up are the Indianapolis Colts with Anthony Richardson and the Tennessee Titans with Will Levis. We didn’t get a big sample size from either of them in their rookie seasons, but they did enough to give us hope. This is the only AFC division where I can see any team coming out on top. However, until another quarterback rises to Stroud’s level, the Texans deserve the early nod as the favorite.
AFC West
The AFC West — and, well, the AFC — goes to Kansas City. The Chiefs showed last year that they don’t even need home-field advantage to win the AFC, and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the conference.
MAHOMES BEHIND THE BACK 🫢
📺: #DETvsKC To @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/eewdYOpS8c— NFL (@NFL) 17 August 2024
It’s an easy game when you have the best quarterback in the league in Mahomes, while two teams in the division (Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos) are not considered playoff contenders. For the Chiefs, this is an easy path to at least one home playoff game.
The team I haven’t mentioned so far is the Los Angeles Chargers, who made a splash in the offseason by picking up Jim Harbaugh from Michigan. Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s gone, and I expect more of the same since he’ll have Justin Herbert leading his physical attack. But a plantar fascia injury to Herbert early in training camp limits their potential. They’re in the midst of a roster transition period — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler left in the offseason — but a healthy Herbert and Harbaugh on the bench should at least give them a chance to knock the Chiefs off the top spot.
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(Photo by Patrick Mahomes: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
