Top line
New polls from Emerson College and Fox News show Vice President Kamala Harris now ahead of former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing states of Nevada and Georgia, marking a turning point for Democrats as Harris benefits from increasing support among black, female and young voters.
US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers the keynote speech at the American Federation of Teachers’ … (+)
Key data
Georgia: In the August 23-26 Fox poll, Harris leads among registered voters by two percentage points, 48% to 50%, and in the August 25-28 Emerson poll, she leads among likely voters by one percentage point, 49% to 48%.
Nevada: Harris is up one percentage point in the Emerson poll, 49% to 48%, and two percentage points higher according to Fox, 48% to 50%.
Arizona: According to Emerson, Harris is three percentage points behind Trump, 47% to 50%, but in the Fox poll she is one percentage point ahead.
North Carolina: Here, Trump is ahead by one percentage point in both the Fox poll (50% to 49%) and the Emerson College poll (49% to 48%).
Pennsylvania: In the Emerson poll, Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent. In a survey of 2,867 likely voters conducted by the Cook Political Report from July 26 to August 2, Harris was one percentage point ahead of Trump, 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent of voters still undecided, taking over the three-point lead Trump had over Biden in a May poll by Cook.
Michigan: Here too, Harris is three percentage points ahead of Trump in the Emerson poll (50% to 47%) and in the Cook poll (49% to 46%); in May, Trump was two percentage points ahead here.
Wisconsin: According to the Emerson poll, Harris is one percentage point behind Trump, 49% to 48%, but Cook found that she would beat him by three percentage points, 49% to 46% (Cook found Trump tied with Biden here in May).
tangent
Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters – demographics that were unsure about supporting Biden before he withdrew, according to a recent New York Times poll. Harris is supported by 84 percent of black voters, a higher share of support than Biden had before he withdrew from the race in July.
Large number
One. That’s the total number of points by which Harris is ahead in the seven swing states, according to the Cook poll.
Important background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, although he insisted on continuing his campaign despite intra-party revolts following his June 27 debate appearance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination, and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call vote. Before Biden dropped out of the race, polls consistently showed Trump would beat him in most swing states, even though Biden had won six of the seven (except North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
More information
Polls Trump vs. Harris 2024: Trump narrowly leads in most polls after Biden drops out (Forbes)
Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris has jumped after the RNC, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 polls: Here’s who will win in the 6 crucial states (Forbes)
