Dozens of Madison residents gathered in a church meeting room this spring for an open house focused on a highly controversial topic: a 39-page document written by city planners.

The plan is called the West Area Plan and is one of 12 blueprints for different neighborhoods that are prepared for expected population growth. City planners expect Madison to grow by more than 100,000 residents by 2050. The plan calls for higher residential density, more mixed development along transportation routes, and changes to parks and open space.

The plan has drawn large crowds at loud public meetings, arguing that the city’s process is opaque and that the plan is being forced on citizens.

But not everyone is against the plan.

James and Heidi Jenninga are civil engineers who attended the open house at High Point Church on Old Sauk Road with their six-month-old baby, Junia. They grew up in the suburbs of Milwaukee and North Carolina, respectively, and bought their home on Madison’s west side less than four years ago.

Heidi Jenninga said neighbors on both sides have lived there for more than 20 years.

“I think they probably have a different idea of ​​what that neighborhood culture is and what it might look like in the future if we need to change,” she said. “I think we have a broader perspective.”

She pointed to a proposal to reduce the number of lanes and add shared paths on Gammon Road as a reason for her young family to stay in the neighborhood.

“We would love to take her in a Burley on a bike trailer, but that’s not safe at the moment,” she said.

Sharon Genthe sees things quite differently. She says she has lived in the Middleton and Madison area for 50 years.

“I had a vision back in 1984 that I wanted to live in the neighborhood where I live today. And I had to buy and sell real estate and work my way up professionally so that I could live here one day,” Genthe said.

She finally bought her dream home 12 years ago, she says, “and then this happened.”

Among her concerns about what the changes could bring, Genthe listed possible high-rise buildings, the construction of so-called granny flats and the elimination of clusters of single-family homes. She said the city is prioritising “the people of the future”.

“Well, I was once a person of the future. And I worked hard to get here. Now I don’t want that to be taken away or changed or for traffic to increase or for me to have to pay for someone else to come,” she said.

Genthe, like many opponents of the plan, questions the population projections for the city and also questions whether the housing shortage in Madison can even be classified as a crisis.

Low vacancy rates and other factors fuel “slowly simmering crisis”

Kurt Paulsen said he could understand that point of view because for current residents the market seemed to be in good shape.

“We’ve lived in our house for a long time, it’s gone up in value,” said Paulsen, a professor of urban planning at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “And we’ve refinanced our mortgages at less than 3 percent. So for the majority of people who are already here, it doesn’t look like there’s a housing crisis, right?”

But Paulsen, who researches housing policy and has written two needs analyses for Dane County, has numerous data points that illustrate the extent of the housing problem.

“It is a crisis, but a slowly developing crisis that has been developing over the last 15 years,” he said.

“We can look at a number of metrics, one of which is the vacancy rate – how much housing is available. And for both rentals and condos for sale in Dane County and Madison, we are well below historical averages and what is considered a balanced market,” Paulsen said.

The rise in interest rates and the increase in housing costs as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic have “added fuel to the smoldering fire,” he said.

Affordable and available housing is also a top issue for Wisconsin voters. As part of WPR’s America Amplified project, we ask people what elected officials could do to improve their communities, and several people wrote to us saying that housing is the state’s top issue.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s latest Housing Snapshot report on the city of Madison concludes that Madison’s rental vacancy rate is “still well below the healthy levels” needed to stop rising rents.

“As demand outstrips supply and construction costs rise dramatically, almost all new rental housing will be unaffordable for the average renter household when it opens, even if it will ultimately be relatively affordable,” the 2023 report said.

The vacancy rate for owner-occupied homes is even lower – in recent years it has fallen below 1 percent.

The vacancy rate is not the only indicator of a housing crisis, said Paulsen.

“You can look at the year-over-year changes in rents. You can look at the changes in rent burden, how many families are spending more than half their income on rent,” he said. “And then you can look at the number of homeless children in public schools. And then the actual number of homeless people since the point-in-time count in January.”

“Every one of these indicators is pointing in the wrong direction and points to a crisis,” he added.

Housing shortage could worsen as more people want to make Madison their home

Madison’s population has grown faster than previous estimates. In 2013, the Wisconsin Department of Administration projected that the city’s population would be just over 250,000 in 2020, and that the population would be just over 270,000 in 2030.

But the 2020 census found Madison had a population of 269,840 – just below the number the state expected ten years later.

“So the city is trying to get ahead of things and recognizes that we need to increase our projections. But ultimately it’s going to be the development community that looks at those demographic and economic projections as well,” Paulsen said. “And they’re telling us they see tremendous demand for housing in Madison and Dane County and they want to build more housing.”

Part of the problem is a clear mismatch between supply and demand for different types of housing. According to the snapshot, Madison’s rental market is experiencing a shortage of housing in every price range.

This means that people with the lowest incomes have to spend a larger portion of their income to find housing. It also means that households with the highest incomes end up having to rent housing that is incredibly affordable for them, driving those housing units off the market for people with lower incomes.

Amy Kell has spent her career advocating for affordable housing. She has also lived in cities with growing populations and tight housing markets, like Seattle and Atlanta. Both cities had faster population growth than Madison and much more land to build housing and transit.

“Madison is limited by the four lakes … you can’t build houses on a lake,” she said. “We don’t have as much land as another city.”

Kell is now an active citizen in Madison, where she moved before retiring. She said the concern of many people she knows is not displacement by new residents, but the loss of tree canopy in their neighborhood.

“Trees are being cut down for all sorts of reasons – for bike lanes or because they were trying to block a building,” she said. “And dozens and dozens of old trees have fallen. And I think that’s really having a negative impact on our quality of life.”

Kell spent the last 22 years of her career running a consulting firm that advocated for increased funding for affordable housing and the provision of social services to low-income residents and seniors. She said there are many opportunities for affordable housing that are accessible from jobs in downtown Madison.

“I’ve worked in affordable housing my entire career and I believe in it. And I believe it gives people a head start. But I also think you have to balance that with the market conditions of the city you’re dealing with,” she said. “And the geography of the city you’re dealing with.”

Paulsen, the University of Washington housing expert, said he doesn’t know exactly how to overcome the divide between neighbors. But ultimately it’s a moral question, he said.

“Can the people who cook for you, babysit your children, drive the bus or cut your hair live in the same neighborhood and send their children to the same school as you?” he asked.

“Do we think everyone deserves a decent and affordable place to live? And are we willing to say yes and make room for more people in our neighborhoods?”

This story is part of WPR’s work to connect with and better serve Wisconsin voters this election season. We want to know what information you need to vote. What do you think candidates should talk about? Tell us here what issue matters most to you and your community.

For more reports from WPR’s America Amplified Initiative, see available here.