LYNCHBURG, Va. (WSET) — Experts estimate who could win the presidential election here in Virginia.
Our local political analyst, Dr. Dave Richards, said former President Donald Trump was leading in the state’s polls when Biden was at the top of the ballot box.
“Trump was ahead in the polls in Virginia by about one percentage point. That’s within the margin of error. So we can’t say Trump would definitely win,” Richards said. “In 2020, Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points. That was a significant margin. So if Trump was up by just one percent in the polls, that meant he wiped out 10 to 11 percent of Biden’s 2020 support. So that was pretty significant, and that’s why people put Virginia in play.”
He said people had been nervous about a second Biden presidency, but Harris was providing them with the relief they had hoped for.
People were relieved that Biden had resigned and they were, to be honest, excited that it was someone other than Biden. He still had a lot of supporters, it clearly wasn’t an easy choice, but Harris represented a new choice, a fresh choice, and people were very excited about that. She’s going to have to keep that kind of excitement going for the next month or so,” Richards noted.
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Richards said Harris is turning the tide in the polls and giving Democrats in the state a real chance.
“We’re seeing the polls come back to the Democrats, not by a huge margin, certainly not by the 10 points that Biden won in 2020, but I think people are more excited about Harris than they are about Biden,” he said. “Can they continue to be excited about Trump? That will be interesting in October when early voting starts in Virginia.”
Richards said he believes Harris has made Virginia a more predictable Democratic state, but that it is not a sure thing for either party.
“The lead is still quite close, she’s only ahead by a few points,” he said. “Harris’ chances are better now, she needs to extend or maintain that lead, and of course on election day or during the election period it will be very important who actually turns up to vote.”
He noted that we can expect to see both candidates making campaign appearances in Virginia in the coming months.
“We’ve already seen visits from Harris and Trump. I think we’ll see a few more,” he said. “We’re conveniently located for DC, we’re conveniently located for the places they were going to be anyway. I wouldn’t take Virginia for granted at this point. If I were either party, I’d say, ‘We need to make some investment in Virginia.'”
