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G5 College Football Conference Realignment: Ranking the Teams Most Likely to Advance
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G5 College Football Conference Realignment: Ranking the Teams Most Likely to Advance

After the drastic, compelling and sometimes confusing realignment of college football conferences, some Group of Five teams appear to be in good position to advance to the Power Four leagues.

As the power conferences continue to expand, G5 teams could be part of that effort. Some Mountain West and AAC teams, for example, could move to the Pac-12 – whether that league would be considered a “power conference” is debatable.

Regardless, here is a ranking of the Group of Five programs most likely to advance to a Power Four conference. Five of the seven teams on this list hail from the Mountain West.

Group of five teams most likely to participate in the conference realignment, ranking

Rank team
1 State of San Diego
2 UNLV
3 Memphis
4 Boise State
5 South Florida
6 State of Colorado
7 State of Fresno
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7. State of Fresno

Fresno State has a lot to offer.

The Bulldogs ranked 12th among G5 teams in total revenue and were outside the top 12 in total spending. While it’s not the most impressive media market, the Fresno area isn’t a bad place for a conference to establish a foothold.

Plus, the Bulldogs have had success of late, winning the Mountain West Championship in 2022 and moving to a 9-4 record in 2023 after defeating New Mexico State in the New Mexico Bowl. Fresno State would be perfectly capable of fitting into a power league from a talent and recruiting perspective.

6. State of Colorado

Colorado State wouldn’t be the first program that comes to mind when looking at a ranking like this, but the Rams would definitely be a program to consider for a Power Four league like the Big 12.

The media market and exposure should be attractive due to CSU’s proximity to Denver, although CSU may have to compete with Colorado in terms of new signings and viewership. CSU also had the eighth-highest total revenue among G5 programs in 2022, so the money is there for the team to prepare for a jump to a P5 conference.


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5. South Florida

South Florida is another school that many wouldn’t immediately consider a Power Four-worthy team. But there would be some benefits for a league like the ACC or Big 12 (now that UCF has left the AAC for the Big 12) to add the Bulls.

USF hasn’t had much success recently, although it did give Alabama some trouble last year and finished 7-6 overall after beating Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl. But because of those struggles over the past few years, the energy around the program hasn’t been particularly high.

But perhaps that would all change with a move to the Power Four. With Tampa, USF is part of a sizable market. The team also plays at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and therefore has the opportunity to move up.

4. Boise State

Many have been clamoring for Boise State to join the Power Four, and the Broncos have been the subject of many conference realignment rumors in recent years.

In Boise, Idaho, the market isn’t huge and national viewership is in the middle of the pack. But Boise State was ranked 14th among G5 teams in total revenue in 2022, so it would be a logical choice. The program also has an energetic and loyal following, as the team has had some major successes and earned some memorable wins in bowl games over the past few decades. That alone earns Boise State a spot among the Power Four programs, but there’s a lot more to consider.

3. Memphis

Memphis has won quite a few games in recent years, and the Tigers are coming off another good season in 2023, going 10-3 overall after defeating Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. They also appear to be a contender for a College Football Playoff spot in 2024. Perhaps this could all help them move into the Power Four.

Memphis has a lot more going for it, including a good basketball school. The football program ranked seventh among G5 teams in total revenue in 2022 and is also well positioned geographically. Of the teams in the AAC, I think Memphis is the most likely to make such a move.

2. UNLV

Yes, UNLV hasn’t exactly been successful on the football field in recent years. However, the 2023 team finished 9-5 overall after losing to Boise State in the Mountain West Championship and Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Plus, wins aren’t the only thing conferences consider when considering adding teams.

Professional sports leagues have moved to or expanded in Las Vegas because it’s a good market. The Rebels were also the sixth-largest team in the Group of Five in total revenue in 2022 and play at Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders, so they’re in a good position to move to another league.

1. State of San Diego

To me, the clearest answer is San Diego State. As recently as 2023, the Aztecs attempted to leave the Mountain West – likely in the hopes of joining the Pac-12 – before SDSU decided not to make that move and the Pac-12 changed drastically.

But San Diego State is the most poised to make the jump from the G5 to the Power Four. SDSU was fifth in total revenue among Group of Five programs in 2022, behind only UCF, Cincinnati, Houston and Air Force, and those top three schools are now in the Big 12.

The market would also benefit a Power Four league in a major California city that doesn’t have an NFL presence. Snapdragon Stadium could also be home to a P5 team. And don’t forget that the Aztecs reached the Final Four in basketball last season, so such a move could make sense for several SDSU programs.

If San Diego State doesn’t stay in a potential Pac-12-Mountain West merger, it would probably be a good idea for the Power Four conferences to consider SDSU.

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