The 2024 season is approaching and Georgia Tech will be playing in the first big game of the season when they face Florida State in Dublin, Ireland. It will be a big test for both teams that will give us a glimpse of how their season could go.
Georgia Tech has one of the toughest schedules in the country and that has played a big role in why most bookies have their projected win total for the season so low. Not only do bookies have Georgia Tech rated low from a win perspective, ESPN’s FPI is also low and just released projections for nearly every game on the Yellow Jackets’ schedule.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytics model to analyze matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a prediction rating system designed to measure the strength of teams and project future performance. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams from 1 to 128, but rather to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever released the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely be very similar to FPI.”
ESPN’s FPI has predicted nearly every game on Georgia Tech’s schedule and here are the results.
Game 1 vs. Florida State: ESPN’s FPI gives Florida State an 80 percent chance to win (0-1, 0-1 ACC)
I think FPI is wrong about Georgia Tech’s chances in this game. I’m not saying the Yellow Jackets should be favored, but they have a much better chance of winning this game than most people think. If the defense has taken a sufficient step forward and the offense continues to be strong, they have a chance to pull off a major upset in game one. However, FPI has a great chance on Florida State here.
Game 2 vs. Georgia State: ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 67 percent chance to win (1-1, 0-1)
While I believe Dell McGee will make Georgia State competitive in the Sun Belt, his first year could be rocky for him. I like Georgia Tech quite a bit here and believe they will easily defeat the Panthers.
Game 3 in Syracuse: ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 52% chance of winning (2-1, 1-1)
FPI views this as a true head-to-head game and I think it’s an interesting matchup. Syracuse is entering a new era with Fran Brown as head coach and they’ve signed some talented transfers, most notably quarterback Kyle McCord from Ohio State, and they have a good game plan. This is a home game, but I believe Georgia Tech gets the road win while Syracuse still has to figure out how to put those pieces together.
Game 4 vs. VMI: ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 98 percent chance to win (3-1, 1-1)
No offense, but this game should be over at halftime.
Game 5 in Louisville: ESPN’s FPI gives Louisville a 78% chance of winning (3-2, 1-2)
FPI sees Louisville as a pretty big favorite in this game. It will be tough to beat the Cardinals on the road, but I think Georgia Tech has a chance to win. This is a game they had last year but lost in the second half, and that will be a big motivation for them to try to win on the road against a strong Louisville defense.
Game 6 vs. Duke: ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia Tech a 58 percent chance to win this game (4-2, 2-2)
FPI is for Georgia Tech against Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils and so am I. Diaz could lead the Blue Devils to victory again in the future, but they have lost a lot to Mike Elko’s talented teams and don’t have a better replacement. It could be a rough first year for Diaz at Duke.
Game 7 at North Carolina: ESPN’s FPI gives North Carolina a 65 percent chance to win this game (4-3, 2-3)
Another FPI pick I disagree with. I know these things can’t be factored in, but Georgia Tech has a habit of beating North Carolina and plays well against them almost every year. I also think the Tar Heels could have a rough year in 2024. While they have a favorable schedule, they no longer have an NFL quarterback under contract and there’s no guarantee their defense will get better. The game may be on the road, but it’s a game Georgia Tech can absolutely win.
Game 8 vs. Notre Dame (Mercedes Benz Stadium): ESPN’s FPI gives Notre Dame an 86% chance to win this game (4-4, 2-3)
According to FPI, Notre Dame is the clear favorite here and the preseason No. 7 team will be very tough to beat. The Fighting Irish suffered a big loss last week when their left tackle was out for the year and there are still some unknowns in their offense as a whole. Notre Dame deserves to be the favorite and will be a very tough test for Georgia Tech.
Game 9 at Virginia Tech: ESPN’s FPI gives Virginia Tech a 60 percent chance to win this game (4-5, 2-4)
FPI is leaning towards the Hokies here at Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech is a team that is getting a lot of preseason love as a possible ACC underdog, and it’s not hard to see why. They bring a lot of power, have a dynamic quarterback, and a very good defense. After the Notre Dame game, this is a tough test to prepare for.
Game 10 vs. Miami: ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 61% chance to win this game (4-6, 2-5)
Miami came in at No. 19 in the first AP poll yesterday and is considered a major contender in the ACC. Everyone remembers what happened last year, including Miami. It will be interesting to see where Miami stands at this point in the year. They have one of the most talented rosters in the ACC, but if they don’t live up to expectations, will they be up to a trip to Bobby Dodd Stadium? If not, Georgia Tech will be ready.
Game 11 vs. NC State: ESPN’s FPI gives NC State a 61% chance to win this game (4-7, 2-6)
Another game where FPI makes Georgia Tech a slight underdog. Like Virginia Tech, NC State gets a lot of preseason praise, but a trip to Atlanta on Thursday night could be difficult. The Wolfpack need to figure out if Grayson McCall is the right quarterback and if he can improve the passing attack. This should be a thrilling game and Georgia Tech’s last ACC game of the year.
The only game FPI doesn’t have a prediction for yet is the rival game against Georgia in Athens, but it’s safe to say the Bulldogs are heavily favored in that game, so Georgia Tech has a projected record of 4-8 according to ESPN’s FPI. While the schedule is tough, that would be a disappointing result for the season. I don’t think that will happen though, because Brent Key has shown he’s capable of pulling off an upset, and that’s what the Yellow Jackets will need to do in 2024 if they want to get to another bowl game or potentially compete in the ACC.
